Advances in Natural Science
Analysis on Influencing Factors on the Fluctuation of Commercial Housing Prices Based on ECM Model: Taking Changsha as an Example
Abstract
Based on the data from Changsha real estate market, this study builds a long-term equilibrium model and a short-term error correction model on the fluctuation of Changsha commercial housing prices. It shows that, GDP, urbanization rate, per capita saving and completed area of housing are the main factors on the fluctuation of Changsha commercial housing prices in the long term, while the influence from the factors of total housing investment, sold area of housing and per capita living area are limited. In short term, the fluctuation of Changsha housing prices has no ability of self-revising, and a real estate bubble is building in the whole market.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. I. (1989). The efficiency of the market for single-family homes. The American Economic Review, 79(1), 125-137.
Chen, L. P., & Yang, X. Q. (2007). Pricing mortgage insurance with house price driven by Poisson jump diffusion process. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 23(4), 345-351.
Glaeser, E., Gyourk, J., & Hilber, C. (2002). Housing affordability and land prices: Is there a crisis in American cities. NBER Working Paper, No.8835.
Li, C., & Chen, L. P. (2009). Pricing mortgage insurance under O-U process. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 39(4), 21-26.
Li, C., Chen, L. P., & Yang, X. Q. (2009). Martingale pricing of insurance under the combination of stochastic volatility and jump diffusion. Systems Engineering, 27(3), 41-45.
Longbottom, N. J. (1981). An empirical analysis of the determination of house prices in the United Kingdom. Urban Studies, 17, 9-21.
Malpezzi, S. (1999). A simple error correction model of house prices. Journal of Housing Economics, ( 8), 27-62.
Meen, G. (2002). The time-series behavior of house prices: A transatlantic divide. Journal of Housing Economics, (11), 1-23.
Peng, R., & Wheaton, W. C. (1994). Effects of restrictive land supply on housing in Hong Kong and econometric analysis. Journal of Housing Research, 5(2), 262-291.
Raymond, Y. C. T. (1998). Housing price, land supply and revenue from land sales. Urban Studies, 1377-1392.
Wu, G. L., & Long, F. J. (2005). An econometric study on the relationship between house price and price and urban household income in China.China Civil Engineering Journal, 38(6), 132-137.
Xu, C. W., & Hao, S. S. (2010). Real estate sales pricing model based on Markov chains. Journal of Tonghua Teachers College, 31(8),1 0-13.
Zhang, J. F., & Liu, H. Y. (2010). The determinants of inter-metropolitan variation in house prices and land prices. Statistical Research, 27(13), 37-44.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/6167
DOI (PDF): http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/g6818
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c)
Share us to: 
Reminder
We are currently accepting submissions via email only.
The registration and online submission functions have been disabled.
Please send your manuscripts to [email protected]，or [email protected] for consideration. We look forward to receiving your work.
Articles published in Advances in Natural Science are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY).
ADVANCES IN NATURAL SCIENCE Editorial Office
Address: 1055 Rue Lucien-L'Allier, Unit #772, Montreal, QC H3G 3C4, Canada.
Telephone: 1-514-558 6138
Website: Http://www.cscanada.net; Http://www.cscanada.org
E-mail:[email protected]; [email protected]
Copyright © 2010 Canadian Research & Development Centre of Sciences and Cultures 
