Forecasting of China Resident's Consumption Level Based on ARMA Model

Hui ZHANG, Meng LIU

Abstract


Abstract: This paper is based on the data of China resident's consumption of 1978-2009, and an ARMA model about China resident's consumption level has also been set up in this paper. It shows that ARMA model is a good forecaster to forecast the value of China resident's future consumption; it can not only estimate and forecast China resident's future consumption level, but also provide a good reference for other economic variables to forecast China’s economy.
Key words: Consumption level; Unit root test; ARMA; White noise; Forecasting

Keywords


Consumption level; Unit root test; ARMA; White noise; Forecasting

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References


DENG Jun, YANG Xuan. (2010). The Forecasting of Stock Price Based on ARMA Model. Theory perspective.

GAO Shuangshuang, SUN Ling. (2010). The Forecasting of China's CPI Based on ARMA Model. Academic research.

HOU Chengqi, XU xusong. (2010). Econometric Time Series Analysis Methods. Technical Economy.

WENG Dongdong. (2010). The Forecasting of China's CPI _Based on ARMA Model. Science Technology and Industry.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/j.ibm.1923842820110202.007

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